Title: Financial and biological model for intensive culture of tilapia

In the last few years tilapia has captured the attention of consumers for its nutritional qualities. At the same time it has become a substitute for species like cod and haddock when stocks are declining around the world, opening good opportunities for its commercialisation. Frozen whole tilapia products have characterized Cuban exports so far but the prices obtained in the international market do not cover the cost for intensive culture farming of tilapia. This study evaluates the likelihood of the production of large sized intensive cultured tilapia in order to produce frozen fillets for the European market. A stochastic model based on biological and financial data from intensive tilapia farming is developed assigning probabilities to several key parameters related to farming and processing. Further analysis to obtain more than 65% chance of positives values of Net Present Values over a period of ten years is conducted on Monte Carlo simulation. The influence of parameters selected as assumptions in the project is evaluated. It was found that the project will be unprofitable unless significant improvements are made in farming and processing areas in Cuba.